These are probability estimates, not guarantees. A verified evaluation using only information available before each event is not yet published.
Win probability
Philadelphia Phillies 99%, give or take 0.1 points of simulation noise · anchored to 1,202 real games in this exact situation, then adjusted for these two teams.
Projected score
9.5 – 2.0expected runs
8–12Philadelphia Phillies, 84% of outcomes
0–5Baltimore Orioles, 84% of outcomes
11.4total runs
Most likely finals 8–0, 8–1, 8–2 (each under 11%, which is the point: no single score is likely). From 6,000 simulated games.
Starting pitchers
Orion KerkeringPhiladelphia Phillies
Innings0.7 0.3–1.0
Strikeouts0.8 0–2
Walks0.5 0–1
Hits allowed0.7 0–2
Home runs0.1 0–0
Runs allowed0.2 0–1
Pitches17 12–20
Kyle BradishBaltimore Orioles
Innings2.5 1.7–3.0
Strikeouts2.5 1–4
Walks1.1 0–2
Hits allowed2.3 1–4
Home runs0.3 0–1
Runs allowed1.1 0–3
Pitches44 38–52
Each figure is the median of the simulated games with an 80% range beside it. Pitch counts are estimated from batters faced (fitted on 17,200 real outings; typical error 8 pitches). These assume the starter is not pulled early for a reason the model cannot see — an injury, a blowout, or a quick hook.
Park and weather
1.02×park
82°Ftemperature
1.06×run environment
82F (1.04x). Park factors are measured from 25,191 games by comparing each club at home with the same club on the road, so a good offence does not inflate its own park. Player rates are park-neutralised before this is applied, or the park would count twice.
What this does not know
- starters are pulled around their own typical workload and a bullpen composite finishes, but individual relievers are not modelled, so a specific closer in a specific inning is not
- defence beyond what is already in the pitcher's line is not modelled, and neither are pinch hitters or intentional walks as a choice
- a reliever is on the mound; he is priced from his season line for a typical relief stint, then the bullpen composite
- bullpen ordered by measured availability: Albert Suárez (long, first appearance in a while, 45% likely); Alex Hoppe (middle, first appearance in a while, 45% likely); Cam Sanders (middle, first appearance in a while, 45% likely); Dietrich Enns (middle, first appearance in a while, 45% likely)
- Philadelphia Phillies defence lets through 0.8 plays per 100 balls in play
- Baltimore Orioles defence lets through 0.3 plays per 100 balls in play
- run environment: 82F (1.04x)
Full game page · state as of 20260802_211955