Every number here is a probability, not a call. Over the last 14 days the next-pitch model was graded on 34,173 real pitches: the top pick was right 39% of the time, and stated probabilities landed within 1.4 points of how often things actually happened. It grades itself every night and corrects what it can.
Win probability
San Diego Padres 55%, give or take 0.6 points of simulation noise · anchored to 115,696 real games in this exact situation, then adjusted for these two teams.
Projected score
5.1 – 4.3expected runs
1–10San Diego Padres, 80% range
1–8Cincinnati Reds, 80% range
9.4total runs
Most likely finals 3–4, 2–3, 4–5 (each under 3%, which is the point: no single score is likely). From 6,000 simulated games.
Starting pitchers
Casey MizeSan Diego Padres
Innings5.0 3.3–6.7
Strikeouts5.1 2–8
Walks1.4 0–3
Hits allowed4.8 2–8
Home runs0.7 0–2
Runs allowed2.2 0–5
Pitches81 60–103
Brandon WilliamsonCincinnati Reds
Innings4.7 3.3–6.3
Strikeouts4.2 2–7
Walks2.6 1–5
Hits allowed4.9 2–8
Home runs0.6 0–2
Runs allowed2.6 0–5
Pitches82 60–103
Each figure is the median of the simulated games with an 80% range beside it. Pitch counts are estimated from batters faced (fitted on 17,200 real outings; typical error 8 pitches). These assume the starter is not pulled early for a reason the model cannot see — an injury, a blowout, or a quick hook.
Park and weather
1.07×park
1.07×run environment
the park favours hitters (1.07x runs). Park factors are measured from 25,110 games by comparing each club at home with the same club on the road, so a good offence does not inflate its own park. Player rates are park-neutralised before this is applied, or the park would count twice.
What this does not know
- starters are pulled around their own typical workload and a bullpen composite finishes, but individual relievers are not modelled, so a specific closer in a specific inning is not
- defence beyond what is already in the pitcher's line is not modelled, and neither are pinch hitters or intentional walks as a choice
- lineup not posted; using the order most recently used
- 2 of 18 hitters have under 50 plate appearances on record
- bullpen ordered by measured availability: Jose Franco (long, first appearance in a while, 45% likely); Chase Petty (long, 26d rest, 33% likely); Luis Mey (middle, 3d rest, 46% likely); Connor Phillips (middle, first appearance in a while, 45% likely)
- Cincinnati Reds defence lets through 0.2 plays per 100 balls in play
- run environment: the park favours hitters (1.07x runs)
- no weather posted yet; temperature and wind are not in this projection
Full game page · state as of 20260902_014046