San Diego Padres 0 – 0 Cincinnati Reds
73–66San Diego Padres · .525
66–73Cincinnati Reds · .475
first pitch
Great American Ball Parkvenue
43,891capacity
Probable starters
Lineups
San Diego Padresactive roster · lineup not posted242B
Sung-Mun Song.541
8C
Ethan Salas
4RF
Jase Bowen.496
Cincinnati Redsactive roster · lineup not posted22B
Edwin Arroyo.551
632B
Ivan Johnson.274
57P
Julian Garcia3.32
Head to head
353–314Cincinnati Reds all-time
668meetings
1969first met
2,974–2,706runs
Recent meetings
2026-08-315–0San Diego Padres won
2026-06-105–4San Diego Padres won
2026-06-103–5Cincinnati Reds won
2026-06-096–2San Diego Padres won
2025-09-101–2Cincinnati Reds won
2025-09-092–4Cincinnati Reds won
2025-09-084–3San Diego Padres won
2025-06-292–3Cincinnati Reds won
Projection
55%San Diego Padres win probability
5.0 – 4.3projected score
1–9 / 1–880% ranges
Starting pitchers
Casey MizeSan Diego Padres
Innings5.0 3.3–6.7
Strikeouts5.2 2–8
Walks1.4 0–3
Hits allowed4.8 2–8
Home runs0.7 0–2
Runs allowed2.2 0–5
Pitches81 60–103
Brandon WilliamsonCincinnati Reds
Innings4.8 3.3–6.3
Strikeouts4.3 2–7
Walks2.6 1–5
Hits allowed4.9 2–8
Home runs0.6 0–2
Runs allowed2.5 0–5
Pitches83 60–103
Each figure is the median of the simulated games with an 80% range beside it. Pitch counts are estimated from batters faced (fitted on 17,200 real outings; typical error 8 pitches). These assume the starter is not pulled early for a reason the model cannot see — an injury, a blowout, or a quick hook.
Estimates, not predictions. Full projection and how it was measured.