New York Mets 0 – 0 Tampa Bay Rays

Each figure is the median of the simulated games with an 80% range beside it. Pitch counts are estimated from batters faced (fitted on 17,200 real outings; typical error 8 pitches). These assume the starter is not pulled early for a reason the model cannot see — an injury, a blowout, or a quick hook.

Estimates, not predictions. Full projection and how it was measured.