These are probability estimates, not guarantees. A verified evaluation using only information available before each event is not yet published.
Win probability
Cleveland Guardians 52%, give or take 0.6 points of simulation noise · anchored to 115,696 real games in this exact situation, then adjusted for these two teams.
Projected score
4.0 – 3.9expected runs
1–8Tampa Bay Rays, 84% of outcomes
1–7Cleveland Guardians, 84% of outcomes
8.0total runs
Most likely finals 2–3, 1–2, 3–4 (each under 4%, which is the point: no single score is likely). From 6,000 simulated games.
Starting pitchers
Griffin JaxTampa Bay Rays
Innings5.2 4.0–6.7
Strikeouts5.2 3–8
Walks1.8 0–4
Hits allowed4.8 2–8
Home runs0.6 0–2
Runs allowed2.1 0–5
Pitches84 67–99
Gavin WilliamsCleveland Guardians
Innings5.2 4.0–7.0
Strikeouts5.4 3–8
Walks2.0 0–4
Hits allowed4.6 2–7
Home runs0.8 0–2
Runs allowed2.2 0–5
Pitches85 70–99
Each figure is the median of the simulated games with an 80% range beside it. Pitch counts are estimated from batters faced (fitted on 17,200 real outings; typical error 8 pitches). These assume the starter is not pulled early for a reason the model cannot see — an injury, a blowout, or a quick hook.
Park and weather
1.03×park
57°Ftemperature
0.97×run environment
the park favours hitters (1.03x runs); 57F (0.94x). Park factors are measured from 25,191 games by comparing each club at home with the same club on the road, so a good offence does not inflate its own park. Player rates are park-neutralised before this is applied, or the park would count twice.
What this does not know
- starters are pulled around their own typical workload and a bullpen composite finishes, but individual relievers are not modelled, so a specific closer in a specific inning is not
- defence beyond what is already in the pitcher's line is not modelled, and neither are pinch hitters or intentional walks as a choice
- bullpen ordered by measured availability: Peyton Pallette (middle, first appearance in a while, 45% likely); Codi Heuer (middle, first appearance in a while, 45% likely); Shawn Armstrong (setup, first appearance in a while, 45% likely); Connor Brogdon (setup, first appearance in a while, 45% likely)
- the umpire’s zone runs wide
- Tampa Bay Rays defence turns extra outs into 0.9 plays per 100 balls in play
- run environment: the park favours hitters (1.03x runs); 57F (0.94x)
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