These are probability estimates, not guarantees. A verified evaluation using only information available before each event is not yet published.
Win probability
Detroit Tigers 100%, give or take 0.1 points of simulation noise · anchored to 1,713 real games in this exact situation, then adjusted for these two teams.
Projected score
6.4 – 11.0expected runs
6–8St. Louis Cardinals, 84% of outcomes
11–11Detroit Tigers, 84% of outcomes
17.4total runs
Most likely finals 6–11, 8–11, 7–11 (each under 80%, which is the point: no single score is likely). From 6,000 simulated games.
Starting pitchers
Dustin MaySt. Louis Cardinals
Innings0.0 0.0–0.0
Strikeouts0.0 0–0
Walks0.0 0–0
Hits allowed0.0 0–0
Home runs0.0 0–0
Runs allowed0.0 0–0
Pitches5 5–5
Kenley JansenDetroit Tigers
Innings0.5 0.0–0.7
Strikeouts0.6 0–2
Walks0.2 0–1
Hits allowed0.3 0–1
Home runs0.1 0–0
Runs allowed0.2 0–1
Pitches12 9–16
Each figure is the median of the simulated games with an 80% range beside it. Pitch counts are estimated from batters faced (fitted on 17,200 real outings; typical error 8 pitches). These assume the starter is not pulled early for a reason the model cannot see — an injury, a blowout, or a quick hook.
Park and weather
1.01×park
56°Ftemperature
in strongwind
0.93×run environment
56F (0.94x); wind in strong (0.98x). Park factors are measured from 25,191 games by comparing each club at home with the same club on the road, so a good offence does not inflate its own park. Player rates are park-neutralised before this is applied, or the park would count twice.
What this does not know
- starters are pulled around their own typical workload and a bullpen composite finishes, but individual relievers are not modelled, so a specific closer in a specific inning is not
- defence beyond what is already in the pitcher's line is not modelled, and neither are pinch hitters or intentional walks as a choice
- a reliever is on the mound; he is priced from his season line for a typical relief stint, then the bullpen composite
- bullpen ordered by measured availability: Drew Anderson (long, first appearance in a while, 45% likely); Ty Madden (long, first appearance in a while, 45% likely); Enmanuel De Jesus (middle, first appearance in a while, 45% likely); Burch Smith (middle, first appearance in a while, 45% likely)
- the umpire’s zone runs tight
- Detroit Tigers defence turns extra outs into 0.4 plays per 100 balls in play
- run environment: 56F (0.94x); wind in strong (0.98x)
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