Every number here is a probability, not a call. Over the last 14 days the next-pitch model was graded on 34,173 real pitches: the top pick was right 39% of the time, and stated probabilities landed within 1.4 points of how often things actually happened. It grades itself every night and corrects what it can.
Win probability
New York Yankees 65%, give or take 0.6 points of simulation noise · anchored to 29,083 real games in this exact situation, then adjusted for these two teams.
Projected score
5.6 – 3.5expected runs
1–10New York Yankees, 80% range
1–7Los Angeles Angels, 80% range
9.1total runs
Most likely finals 3–4, 2–3, 4–2 (each under 3%, which is the point: no single score is likely). From 6,000 simulated games.
Starting pitchers
Gerrit ColeNew York Yankees
Innings5.5 4.0–7.3
Strikeouts6.2 3–9
Walks1.6 0–3
Hits allowed4.7 2–8
Home runs0.7 0–2
Runs allowed2.0 0–5
Pitches87 63–110
Grayson RodriguezLos Angeles Angels
Innings4.1 2.7–5.7
Strikeouts4.1 2–7
Walks2.1 0–4
Hits allowed4.2 2–7
Home runs0.7 0–2
Runs allowed2.6 0–6
Pitches71 52–89
Each figure is the median of the simulated games with an 80% range beside it. Pitch counts are estimated from batters faced (fitted on 17,200 real outings; typical error 8 pitches). These assume the starter is not pulled early for a reason the model cannot see — an injury, a blowout, or a quick hook.
Park and weather
1.00×park
78°Ftemperature
1.02×run environment
78F (1.02x). Park factors are measured from 25,110 games by comparing each club at home with the same club on the road, so a good offence does not inflate its own park. Player rates are park-neutralised before this is applied, or the park would count twice.
Next pitch
Not enough yet — 6 thrown tonight, the model waits for 15.
This plate appearance
Luis García Jr. vs Grayson Rodriguez · 734 PA and 322 batters faced behind these numbers.
What this does not know
- starters are pulled around their own typical workload and a bullpen composite finishes, but individual relievers are not modelled, so a specific closer in a specific inning is not
- defence beyond what is already in the pitcher's line is not modelled, and neither are pinch hitters or intentional walks as a choice
- bullpen ordered by measured availability: Mitch Farris (middle, 3d rest, 46% likely); Sammy Peralta (middle, 3d rest, 46% likely); Ryan Watson (middle, 5d rest, 40% likely); Ben Joyce (middle, 5d rest, 40% likely)
- the catcher loses 2.7 strikes per 100 borderline pitches
- New York Yankees defence turns extra outs into 0.5 plays per 100 balls in play
- run environment: 78F (1.02x)
Full game page · state as of 20260902_014125