Every number here is a probability, not a call. Over the last 14 days the next-pitch model was graded on 34,173 real pitches: the top pick was right 39% of the time, and stated probabilities landed within 1.4 points of how often things actually happened. It grades itself every night and corrects what it can.
Win probability
Pittsburgh Pirates 54%, give or take 0.6 points of simulation noise · anchored to 115,696 real games in this exact situation, then adjusted for these two teams.
Projected score
4.1 – 4.1expected runs
1–8San Francisco Giants, 80% range
1–8Pittsburgh Pirates, 80% range
8.2total runs
Most likely finals 3–4, 2–3, 1–2 (each under 4%, which is the point: no single score is likely). From 6,000 simulated games.
Starting pitchers
Landen RouppSan Francisco Giants
Innings5.1 3.3–7.0
Strikeouts5.3 3–8
Walks2.6 1–5
Hits allowed4.7 2–8
Home runs0.6 0–2
Runs allowed2.3 0–5
Pitches86 63–110
Jared JonesPittsburgh Pirates
Innings4.8 3.3–6.3
Strikeouts5.1 2–8
Walks1.8 0–4
Hits allowed3.9 2–7
Home runs0.7 0–2
Runs allowed1.9 0–4
Pitches77 56–96
Each figure is the median of the simulated games with an 80% range beside it. Pitch counts are estimated from batters faced (fitted on 17,200 real outings; typical error 8 pitches). These assume the starter is not pulled early for a reason the model cannot see — an injury, a blowout, or a quick hook.
Park and weather
1.00×park
1.00×run environment
What this does not know
- starters are pulled around their own typical workload and a bullpen composite finishes, but individual relievers are not modelled, so a specific closer in a specific inning is not
- defence beyond what is already in the pitcher's line is not modelled, and neither are pinch hitters or intentional walks as a choice
- lineup not posted; using the order most recently used
- 3 of 18 hitters have under 50 plate appearances on record
- bullpen ordered by measured availability: Carmen Mlodzinski (long, 4d rest, 45% likely); Wilber Dotel (long, 18d rest, 33% likely); Yohan Ramírez (middle, 3d rest, 46% likely); Kirby Yates (middle, 3d rest, 46% likely)
- Pittsburgh Pirates defence turns extra outs into 0.2 plays per 100 balls in play
- no weather posted yet; temperature and wind are not in this projection
Full game page · state as of 20260902_014013